國立臺灣大學哲學論評

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How is a scientific theory, especial a classical physical theory, tested? This problem has a long history. In this paper I‟ll propose a theory of testing based on but differentiated from Giere‟s studies on the structure of scientific theories (Giere 1988, 1994, 1999). I will show, from both theoretical and historical perspectives, that a scientific theory can always be understood as one contains a classified model population, including both higher-level models and realizable models, and that scientists always test a theory through its realizable models. To transmit the consequences of testing realizable models to a higher-level model is a very complicated mechanism. Therefore, it is unlikely that a whole theory could ever be completely confirmed or falsified, even if some of its realizable models have been conclusively confirmed or falsified. Finally, I‟ll illustrate sucha theory of testing can give an adequate account of the testing history of a scientific theory, for example, the Newtonian theory. This theory of testing is a rational reconstruction, in Lakatosian sense, of the process of scientific testing.